What’s Next for the Economy is a book about economic cycles and how they can be used to project current economic conditions forward to understand what to expect in the future. If you can learn from history, you can take advantage of that knowledge for your own personal planning and decision making to minimize losses and maximize profits. The key question in projecting the past to determine the future (or at least getting an idea of where it’s headed) is to know where the economy is in each particular cycle. You need to know at what point of the curve it’s on, so you can tell what the next point will be, to answer the question, “What’s next?” The value of this approach to understanding the economy is that it is not time-specific: If you know where you are in each cycle, you can project to where you will be in that cycle for future dates at any time. This makes investment planning a much easier task for everyone interested in his or her own financial future.
All these cycles are interrelated: inflation and real estate, real estate and the stock market, and the business cycle and everything else. What’s next could be different, depending on the confluence of the different cycles overlapping. Depending on where you are in each of these curves, you can predict what the general overall future will be in any of these cycles. This is a good thing to know. And based on that location, you can guide your decisions toward a path of profitability and success. It’s just like navigation: If you don’t know where you are, it’s hard to figure out where you should go or where you will end up.
Edward Thomas is a member of the Royal Economic Society. He received a Master of Business Administration from the University of California in Irvine, California and was a National Merit Scholar at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor, Michigan.
In his 30+ year career as a project manager and engineer, he used quantitative data and predictive metrics to determine how well things were going, and what to expect in the future (from a schedule and cost performance perspective). He has applied that experience and other life lessons to the business of economics and personal finance, and the result is this book.